Yesterday I posted a followup on MarketHistory to the idea I've been following that the stock market, represented by the Nasdaq Composite Index, has been tracking in analogous fashion, the movements of the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading up to and following the 1929-1937 which showed the great bull market leading to the peak in 1929, and the crash into the Great Depression afterwards. Based on that analog, on October 11th I suggested to a colleague in an email that I thought the top had been reached that day. This chart shows that this observation was correct:
The next day I published this observation on MarketHistory.com, and followed up with a post on this blog to the same effect.
Here's the updated analog chart. Based on this analog, I think the markets may have a sharp rally from here, but after that, it looks like we may be in for a big fall:
